Scattered strong storms, limited severe weather risk in Alabama ahead of a cold front arriving Friday
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Warm, muggy weather will mean an increasing chance of showers and thunderstorms this week as a cold front moves into Alabama. A few strong storms will bring heavy rain by the end of the week. Check the video forecast for the latest.
FIRST WARNING IMPACT DAYS
Heads up: We have declared Thursday and Friday as First Warning Impact Days due to the threat of scattered heavy thunderstorms. We are warning you first for potential disruptions to outdoor activities and travel on both days.
Thursday, May 1
A line of heavy thunderstorms will roll into Alabama from the northwest during the second half of the day Thursday. We will have to watch along this line for pockets that may briefly turn strong to severe with gusty winds and hail. The overall severe threat is low, but not zero.
Timing: The day will begin with a chance of some showers in the morning, but widespread heavy storms are expected to move closer to Alabama after lunchtime Thursday. They will spread into the state by the late afternoon and early evening moving from northwest to southeast. They will start near The Shoals just after noon, and the most significant impacts will be felt northwest of Birmingham, Tuscaloosa, Jasper and Cullman before 6 p.m.
The most widespread thunderstorm activity will sweep through central Alabama later in the day, potentially disrupting the afternoon commute as well as baseball, softball, and soccer games and practices.
Impacts: These storms are likely to bring dangerous cloud-to-ground lightning, heavy rainfall of up to one inch in less than an hour, small hail, and wind gusts exceeding 40 mph.
The Storm Prediction has introduced a slight risk over far northwest Alabama.
Friday, May 2
Friday鈥檚 storms will come ahead of a strong cold front that will bring a cooler air and lower humidity for the weekend. This front is responsible for our next big change.
Timing: The timeline for Friday's showers and thunderstorms is becoming less clear the closer we get to the day because of a very slow-moving storm system. Each passing suite of model guidance gets a little slower with an approaching cold front and the jet stream driving it south.
With that in mind, timing will need to be updated on Wednesday, Thursday and Friday to refine this and give you the clearest picture of expectations.
In the image below, you will see the timeline for the "best" chance of rain and thunderstorms. Some scattered, hit-or-miss, unevenly-spaced thunderstorms will be ongoing throughout the day, but the most organized activity will be in these zones at these times.
Impacts: The risk of severe storms will be low, but a few stronger storms will produce wind gusts over 40 mph, torrential rain and frequent lightning.
A marginal severe weather risk may be introduced for parts of Alabama for Friday, so be sure to check back for updates. We will be the first to warn you if that happens.
Remember, if lightning is within 10 miles of your location, it鈥檚 not safe to be outdoors. Follow the 30-30 rule for lightning safety:
When you see lightning, count the seconds until you hear thunder. If it鈥檚 30 seconds or less, the storm is dangerously close鈥攕eek shelter immediately. If you can鈥檛 see lightning, hearing thunder is a reliable indicator. Stay sheltered for at least 30 minutes after the last lightning flash.
Use the 米兰体育 13 app to stay informed. It will alert you if lightning strikes within 10 miles of your location.
THE NEXT BIG CHANGE
This weekend will bring a break from the summer-like heat and humidity. You may even call it "cool" by Sunday morning. Given the timing of the cold snap, you could call this one 鈥淏lackberry Winter鈥� since the blackberries are in bloom now.
The cold front responsible for the heavy thunderstorms on Friday will eventually usher in much cooler air for the weekend. As this system will be slow to exit, showers and a few storms may linger through Saturday.
The good news is that Sunday is still looking drier and less humid.
Sunday morning will be the coldest of this 鈥渃old snap.鈥� Alabama鈥檚 coldest spots will drop to the 40s, while Birmingham, Tuscaloosa, Alabaster, Anniston, and Gadsden hover in the low 50s.
This cool air mass will gradually recede next week, but its effects will linger. Expect cool mornings and pleasantly warm, dry afternoons as high pressure keeps humidity low and stormy weather at bay for several days.
WARM AND HUMID WEDNESDAY
Wednesday will be another warm and muggy day with a chance of isolated afternoon thunderstorms. Afternoon highs climb into the low to mid-80s.
The best chance for an isolated storm will come between 1 and 7 p.m. on Wednesday.
STAY WEATHER-AWARE
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