Presidential election could shape Israel-Hamas war as conflict hits one-year mark
As the Israel-Hamas war approaches its one-year mark, the U.S. presidential election could potentially shape the path forward. Both candidates say they support Israel鈥檚 security but they differ when it comes to diplomacy.
As the Israel-Hamas war approaches its one-year mark, the U.S. presidential election could potentially shape the path forward. Both candidates say they support Israel鈥檚 security but they differ when it comes to diplomacy.
As the Israel-Hamas war approaches its one-year mark, the U.S. presidential election could potentially shape the path forward. Both candidates say they support Israel鈥檚 security but they differ when it comes to diplomacy.
As the Israel-Hamas war approaches its one-year mark, the U.S. presidential election could shape the path forward.
On Oct. 7th, 2023, Hamas militants killed 1,200 Israelis, captured 250 hostages and triggered the ongoing conflict in Gaza. Since then, the death toll from Israel's retaliation has surpassed 41,000 people, according to Palestinian health officials.
With ceasefire talks stalled and regional tensions spreading, some fear the political calendar in the United States may be delaying a peace deal.
鈥淚 certainly worry that Prime Minister Netanyahu is watching the American election as he makes decisions about his military campaigns in the North and in Gaza. I hope this is not true,鈥� Sen. Chris Murphy (D-Connecticut) told CNN in a recent interview. 鈥淚t is certainly a possibility that the Israeli government is not going to sign any diplomatic agreement prior to the American election as a means to potentially try to influence the result.鈥�
President Joe Biden was asked about those concerns directly on Friday.
鈥淣o administration has helped Israel more than I have, none, none, none鈥nd I think that Bibi should remember that,鈥� Biden said, referring to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. 鈥淲hether he is trying to influence the election, I don't know but I鈥檓 not counting on that.鈥�
Like Biden, Vice President Kamala Harris is supporting Israel as it conducts what the administration has described as a limited ground operation in Lebanon targeting the militant group Hezbollah, which has also resulted in civilian deaths.
Harris responded publicly after Hezbollah鈥檚 ally, Iran, fired nearly 200 missiles at Israel on Tuesday.
"I will always make sure Israel has the ability to defend itself against Iran and Iran-backed terrorist militias," Harris said.
Former President Donald Trump went further. At a town hall event in North Carolina on Friday, he said Israel should strike Iran鈥檚 nuclear sites in retaliation for Tuesday鈥檚 attack, a step President Biden opposed earlier in the week while speaking to reporters.
"When they asked him that question, the answer should鈥檝e been 鈥榟it the nuclear first, and worry about the rest later,鈥�" Trump said.
In the past, Trump has been critical of the Biden-Harris administration鈥檚 push for a ceasefire deal between Israel and Hamas. He pledged to give Israel the support it needs to win but added 鈥淚 do want them to win fast.鈥�
"From the start, Harris has worked to tie Israel's hand behind its back, demanding an immediate ceasefire, always demanding ceasefire," Trump said at an anti-semitisim prevention event in August. 鈥淭hat would only give Hamas time to regroup and launch a new October 7-style attack."
Harris has repeatedly highlighted civilian casualties in Gaza and advocated for a deal to end the fighting.
鈥淲e cannot look away in the face of these tragedies, we cannot allow ourselves to be numb to the suffering and I will not be silent,鈥� Harris said in July, a few days after Biden dropped out of the presidential race.
Middle East Institute Senior Fellow Brian Katulis said, while the next president will be an important player in the war, there are limits to America鈥檚 influence.
"A lot of what's going on in the region these days is driven by the interests and the actions of those in the region," Katulis said. "The United States does not have full power to actually control events.鈥�
However, the next president could potentially play a key role in what happens after the war.
Harris has endorsed a two-state solution, in which Israel would exist alongside an independent Palestinian state.
Trump has been less clear during his campaign. Asked about his position in an Trump said, 鈥淚t depends when. There was a time when I thought two states could work. Now, I think two states is going to be very, very tough. I think it's going to be much tougher to get.鈥�
Katulis noted, while in office, Trump cut long-standing U.S. aid to the Palestinian people as part of a pressure campaign aimed at getting Palestinian leaders to accept a peace deal
鈥淚 think we're going to see even less support than we've seen to the Palestinians over the last few years under a Trump administration,鈥� Katulis said.
Still, there are signs Democratic support from Arab Americans is slipping. A recent poll conducted by John Zogby Strategies for the Arab American Institute found Trump leads Harris 46% to 42% among those who report they are 鈥渧ery likely" to vote.
鈥淜amala Harris regained much of the support Biden lost after October 7th, but Harris remains 18 points below Biden鈥檚 2020 level of support with Arab American voters,鈥� the release continues. 鈥淚n our thirty years of polling Arab American voters, we have not witnessed anything like the role that the war on Gaza is having on voter behavior.鈥�
A found Israelis broadly favor Trump.
Another found Trump and Harris are statistically tied when voters are asked who would better handle the Israel-Hamas war.
