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Here's how Trump's pause on military aid could affect Ukraine's defenses

Here's how Trump's pause on military aid could affect Ukraine's defenses
You are looking at basically cascading effects that could have *** major impact on the ability of the Ukrainians to conduct the war. Analysts say President Donald Trump's decision to pause military aid to Ukraine could be devastating for that country eventually. Officials say the freeze could last until Kith commits to peace talks. Trump and his senior aides want Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky to acknowledge last Friday's heated Oval Office dispute, according to officials. Allowed to be in *** position and right from the very beginning of the war, not in *** good position. You don't have the cards right now. Officials say Zelensky's response could be in the form of *** public apology. They say it needs to happen before *** discussion about aid or *** deal on Ukraine's rare earth metals. I think that there was just *** certain sense of there was *** lack of respect. There was *** certain sense of entitlement. Analysts say Ukraine has enough in its stockpile. To sustain its current fighting pace for *** few weeks, it also has support from Europe, but gets its most advanced weapons from the US. Donald Trump is *** strong leader, and we need his strength to be on the side of the weak. Some analysts say pausing aid also could have negative implications for Trump. Support for Russia and support for Putin is not high, and so Trump is testing the bounds of how far he can go with this. I'm Miy Kiley reporting.
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Here's how Trump's pause on military aid could affect Ukraine's defenses
The U.S. has been Ukraine鈥檚 biggest military backer since Russia鈥檚 full-scale invasion began three years ago. The suspension of that aid by the Trump administration doesn鈥檛 mean Ukraine鈥檚 defenses will quickly collapse.But it's a major blow that threatens to remove some of the most formidable weapons in Ukraine鈥檚 battlefield arsenal, and ratchets up pressure on Kyiv to accept a peace agreement.Here鈥檚 a look at the decision and its implications.How much of Ukraine鈥檚 aid comes from the US?The United States has given the Ukrainians more than $180 billion in assistance since Russia launched an all-out war on Feb. 24, 2022, including more than $66.5 billion in military aid.Washington provides about 20% of Ukraine鈥檚 military supplies, and that fifth includes the most lethal and important equipment, including longer-range missiles and Patriot air defense systems that can shoot down the most powerful Russian projectiles.American military assistance also goes far beyond weapons and ammunition.Ukrainian troops rely on satellite communications systems supplied by Elon Musk鈥檚 Starlink to communicate on the front line, and on American intelligence to track Russian troop movements and select targets for Ukrainian strikes. If the U.S. stops sharing data from satellites and other assets, it would badly affect Ukraine鈥檚 capability to strike back at Russia, and Ukraine鈥檚 other allies lack the resources to fill the gap.鈥淎 lot will depend on what鈥檚 covered by the American suspension,鈥� said Malcolm Chalmers, deputy director-general of defense think-tank RUSI. 鈥淲ill they suspend all technical assistance to Ukraine? That would have a more dramatic, more rapid impact than simply stopping the pipeline of arms.鈥漌hy has Trump cut it off?The White House said that the U.S. is 鈥減ausing and reviewing鈥� its Ukraine aid to 鈥渆nsure that it is contributing to a solution.鈥� The order will remain in effect until Trump determines that Ukraine has demonstrated a commitment to peace negotiations with Russia.The decision comes days after an explosive meeting with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, in which Trump and U.S. Vice President JD Vance said that Ukraine鈥檚 leader hasn't expressed sufficient gratitude for American support.Video below: What鈥檚 next for peace talks after Trump-Zelenskyy clashHow will it change the battlefield?The U.S. move won鈥檛 have an immediate impact on the battlefield, where Kyiv鈥檚 forces are struggling to stem a relentless Russian offensive in eastern Ukraine. Ukrainian forces have slowed Russian advances along the roughly 1,000-kilometer (600-mile) front line, where Russia is slowly gaining ground at a huge human and material cost.The pause in aid will weaken air defenses and will hit Ukraine鈥檚 ability to hit Russian targets far behind the front lines.Alexander Kots, a Russian war blogger, said that for Ukraine, 鈥渢he U.S. aid suspension is unpleasant but not deadly.鈥滺e said that while Ukraine鈥檚 European allies can fill some of the gaps and provide artillery systems, they don鈥檛 have alternatives to the U.S.-made air-defense systems and longer-range HIMARS missile systems that can strike ground targets up to 300 kilometers (200 miles) away.Ukraine is already running low on missiles for the American-supplied Patriot systems that are crucial to defending cities from Russian air attacks, according to Patrick Bury, a warfare expert at the U.K.'s University of Bath.鈥淭he problem is, a lot of what the U.S. provides is the stuff that Europe cannot, and other countries cannot, provide in the short term 鈥� high-end stuff," he said.Ukraine has stockpiles of artillery shells and other munitions, and has ramped up domestic production of drones, which are now among the most important weapons in the war. It鈥檚 estimated that just over half of the military hardware used by Ukraine is domestically produced.Chalmers, the RUSI expert, said that the Ukrainians have built up their defense production, and 鈥渁re innovating at an incredible rate because of the pressure they鈥檙e under.鈥濃淚 think they will survive for quite some time,鈥� he said. 鈥淏ut it鈥檚 a material blow, and it鈥檚 also a challenge to Europe.鈥滳an Ukraine鈥檚 other allies step up?A summit in London on Sunday was aimed at getting European leaders to step up and put Ukraine in the best possible position before potential peace talks.The U.K. announced that it would use 1.6 billion pounds ($2 billion) in export financing to supply 5,000 air defense missiles. The European Union has proposed an 800 billion-euro ($841 billion) plan to bolster the defenses of EU nations and provide Ukraine with military muscle.But Samir Puri, director of the Center for Global Governance and Security at international affairs think tank Chatham House, said that European and American aid are intertwined.鈥淭his was always a joint effort,鈥� he said. 鈥淭he U.S. gives a lot, the Europeans give a lot. You take away the Americans from that joint effort and 鈥� there鈥檚 just a huge component missing to the structure.鈥�

The U.S. has been Ukraine鈥檚 biggest military backer since Russia鈥檚 full-scale invasion began three years ago. The suspension of that aid by the Trump administration doesn鈥檛 mean Ukraine鈥檚 defenses will quickly collapse.

But it's a major blow that threatens to remove some of the most formidable weapons in Ukraine鈥檚 battlefield arsenal, and ratchets up pressure on Kyiv to accept a peace agreement.

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Here鈥檚 a look at the decision and its implications.

How much of Ukraine鈥檚 aid comes from the US?

The United States has given the Ukrainians more than $180 billion in assistance since Russia launched an all-out war on Feb. 24, 2022, including more than $66.5 billion in military aid.

Washington provides about 20% of Ukraine鈥檚 military supplies, and that fifth includes the most lethal and important equipment, including longer-range missiles and Patriot air defense systems that can shoot down the most powerful Russian projectiles.

American military assistance also goes far beyond weapons and ammunition.

Ukrainian troops rely on satellite communications systems supplied by Elon Musk鈥檚 Starlink to communicate on the front line, and on American intelligence to track Russian troop movements and select targets for Ukrainian strikes. If the U.S. stops sharing data from satellites and other assets, it would badly affect Ukraine鈥檚 capability to strike back at Russia, and Ukraine鈥檚 other allies lack the resources to fill the gap.

鈥淎 lot will depend on what鈥檚 covered by the American suspension,鈥� said Malcolm Chalmers, deputy director-general of defense think-tank RUSI. 鈥淲ill they suspend all technical assistance to Ukraine? That would have a more dramatic, more rapid impact than simply stopping the pipeline of arms.鈥�

Why has Trump cut it off?

The White House said that the U.S. is 鈥減ausing and reviewing鈥� its Ukraine aid to 鈥渆nsure that it is contributing to a solution.鈥� The order will remain in effect until Trump determines that Ukraine has demonstrated a commitment to peace negotiations with Russia.

The decision comes days after with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, in which Trump and U.S. Vice President JD Vance said that Ukraine鈥檚 leader hasn't expressed sufficient gratitude for American support.

Video below: What鈥檚 next for peace talks after Trump-Zelenskyy clash

How will it change the battlefield?

The U.S. move won鈥檛 have an immediate impact on the battlefield, where Kyiv鈥檚 forces are struggling to stem a relentless Russian offensive in eastern Ukraine. Ukrainian forces have slowed Russian advances along the roughly 1,000-kilometer (600-mile) front line, where Russia is slowly gaining ground at a huge human and material cost.

The pause in aid will weaken air defenses and will hit Ukraine鈥檚 ability to hit Russian targets far behind the front lines.

Alexander Kots, a Russian war blogger, said that for Ukraine, 鈥渢he U.S. aid suspension is unpleasant but not deadly.鈥�

He said that while Ukraine鈥檚 European allies can fill some of the gaps and provide artillery systems, they don鈥檛 have alternatives to the U.S.-made air-defense systems and longer-range HIMARS missile systems that can strike ground targets up to 300 kilometers (200 miles) away.

Ukraine is already running low on missiles for the American-supplied Patriot systems that are crucial to defending cities from Russian air attacks, according to Patrick Bury, a warfare expert at the U.K.'s University of Bath.

鈥淭he problem is, a lot of what the U.S. provides is the stuff that Europe cannot, and other countries cannot, provide in the short term 鈥� high-end stuff," he said.

Ukraine has stockpiles of artillery shells and other munitions, and has ramped up domestic production of drones, which are now among the most important weapons in the war. It鈥檚 estimated that just over half of the military hardware used by Ukraine is domestically produced.

Chalmers, the RUSI expert, said that the Ukrainians have built up their defense production, and 鈥渁re innovating at an incredible rate because of the pressure they鈥檙e under.鈥�

鈥淚 think they will survive for quite some time,鈥� he said. 鈥淏ut it鈥檚 a material blow, and it鈥檚 also a challenge to Europe.鈥�

Can Ukraine鈥檚 other allies step up?

A summit in London on Sunday was aimed at getting European leaders to step up and put Ukraine in the best possible position before potential peace talks.

The U.K. announced that it would use 1.6 billion pounds ($2 billion) in export financing to supply 5,000 air defense missiles. The European Union has proposed an 800 billion-euro ($841 billion) plan to bolster the defenses of EU nations and provide Ukraine with military muscle.

But Samir Puri, director of the Center for Global Governance and Security at international affairs think tank Chatham House, said that European and American aid are intertwined.

鈥淭his was always a joint effort,鈥� he said. 鈥淭he U.S. gives a lot, the Europeans give a lot. You take away the Americans from that joint effort and 鈥� there鈥檚 just a huge component missing to the structure.鈥�